مؤسسة الشرق الأوسط للنشر العلمي
عادةً ما يتم الرد في غضون خمس دقائق
Livestock systems in Al-Bayda and
the wider Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar region are exposed to seasonal water limitation,
high summer thermal load, rangeland change, and climate-sensitive disease
hazards. This study synthesizes the available evidence on pathways through
which environmental and climatic conditions may affect livestock health,
welfare, and production in the region. An evidence-informed narrative review
was combined with a reproducible descriptive analysis of NASA POWER monthly
MERRA-2 data for a point near Al-Bayda (32.76°N, 21.76°E) for 2001–2025. Annual
mean 2-m air temperature increased by 0.29 °C decade⁻¹ (ordinary least squares
[OLS] p = 0.006; Kendall τ p = 0.009). Annual precipitation was highly variable
(108–638 mm); its positive OLS slope was not statistically significant at the
0.05 level (64.5 mm decade⁻¹; p = 0.056), illustrating why a simple “declining
rainfall” claim cannot be made from this series. The 2001–2020 climatology
shows a pronounced summer dry period, a critical exposure window for water,
forage, and heat management. The literature supports biologically plausible
links between heat load, drought-related feed deficits, vector ecology, and
compromised animal performance. However, publicly traceable, contemporaneous
district-level data on herd inventories, births, deaths, production, and
laboratory-confirmed disease incidence were not identified; consequently, local
effect sizes and population dynamics are not estimated here. The paper proposes
a sentinel-monitoring and One Health adaptation framework that links climate,
rangeland, veterinary, and farm-management indicators. Reliable local
surveillance is essential before causal attribution, precise loss estimates, or
district-wide livestock-population claims can be made.