مؤسسة الشرق الأوسط للنشر العلمي
عادةً ما يتم الرد في غضون خمس دقائق
This study offers a systematic comparison of the finance‑investment nexus in Iraq’s post‑conflict transition (1990–2024) with the post‑communist transitions of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Moving beyond descriptive case studies, we propose a Dual‑Pathway Transition Framework and apply a Markov regime‑switching ARDL methodology to an original harmonized quarterly dataset. Our analysis points to three cross‑contextual empirical regularities that persist despite the deep differences in transition origins. First, a banking stability threshold range (roughly 10.9–13.0), with a pooled estimate near 11.9, emerges as a critical precondition for investment responsiveness across all four economies—suggesting a common “confidence threshold” in banking resilience. Second, dollarization displays a pronounced phase‑dependent duality: it acts as a stabilizing buffer during systemic crises but turns into a structural drag on investment during stabilization phases. Third, reform sequencing matters: sequences that prioritise foundational stability before market liberalisation consistently deliver stronger investment outcomes, generating a “sequencing premium” of about 35–40%. These results contribute to comparative economic studies by showing that, while political and historical contexts remain unique, the functional challenges of rebuilding the finance‑investment channel exhibit convergent logics. The findings offer empirically grounded yet context‑sensitive lessons for post‑conflict economies such as Iraq, underlining the value of systematic learning from broader transition experiences.